“We are in a new
Cold War,” said Stuart Kaufman, a professor in the University of
Delaware Department of Political Science and International Relations,
speaking about the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Kaufman joined three other UD scholars for a panel discussion,
“Understanding the War in Ukraine,” held Feb. 28 in Gore Recital Hall
and streamed online.
More than 500 people attended the interdisciplinary event, which was
sponsored by the College of Arts and Sciences. Other scholars joining
the discussion were Holly Myers, an assistant professor of Russian in
the Department of Languages, Literatures and Cultures; David Shearer,
Thomas Muncy Keith Professor of History in the Department of History;
and Polly Zavadivker, an assistant professor in the Department of
History and the Jewish Studies Program.
The political, historical, cultural, economic and linguistic context
of the invasion was explored, as well as why diplomacy failed, and
predictions as to what might come next.
Kaufman, who worked in foreign affairs for the Clinton
administration, delved into what Russian president Vladimir Putin was
thinking when he ordered this invasion, outlining three possible
motivations in plain-spoken terms: theory #1 -- Putin is a rational
actor responding to threat; theory #2 –- Putin is a thug; theory #3 --
Putin is crazy.
As to the first theory, “Russians feel like they are slowly being
surrounded,” said Kaufman, referencing the NATO expansion eastward.
Putin had made it clear that if such expansion continued it would be met
with resistance. In characterizing Putin as a thug, Kaufman noted that
when threats and intimidations don’t work, thugs turn to violence.
Although Putin has often been seen as the cold, calculating former KGB
agent, Kaufman said that Putin’s angry and rambling hour-long speech on
Feb. 21 illustrated how much Putin views himself as the “Russian leader
who will restore greatness.” He has become increasingly isolated
physically and psychologically during the pandemic and thus his
“delusions of grandeur” have probably only been heightened.
Regardless of what brought Putin to this point, Kaufman now sees “no
way out of this except through it,” and predicts mass casualties and
millions of refugees in the weeks and months ahead.